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LO STRANO CASO DEL DOCTOR FREDDIE E MISTER FANNIE!
Scritto il 10 Luglio 2008 alle 07:22 da
Lo strano caso del dottor Jekyll e mister Hyde, il romanzo di Stevenson, il suo più grande romanzo, uno scienziato che produce una miscela di finanza creativa che permetta di separare anche solo per un istante l’anima buona da quella cattiva.
L’anima buona di Freddie & Fannie è il sostegno governativo al " sogno americano " garanzie a favore delle famiglie, una porzione magica che si trasforma all’improvviso in rischio sistemico, con una serie di scandali nel passato.
Tempo fà in un post feci riferimento ad una convention di banchieri nella quale il presidente della Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke affermò che i portafogli delle due principali società governative di concessione mutui per l’acquisto di abitazione FREDDIE MAC e FANNIE MAE continuano a rappresentare una “sorgente” significativa di rischio sistemico, proponendo di vendere parte del loro portafoglio di 1400 miliardi di dollari .
Colpite negli ultimi anni da alcuni scandali di assoluta rilevanza, le due agenzie governative sarebbero l’origine di questa nuova ed improvvisa ondata di panico che attraversa i mercati.
In fondo dovevano avere un ruolo determinante nel sostegno al mercato immobiliare grazie alla deroga dei Jumbo Loans ovvero mutui dai 417.000 dollari in su.
Un report di Lehman è piombato come un fulmine a ciel sereno sui mercati, quella regola contabile ormai conosciuta anche dai lettori di Icebergfinanza, la FAS 140 e l’esistenza di alcuni veicoli ombra, complessivamente 75 miliardi di off balance sheet mortgage backed assets, in parole povere giochi contabili per mascherare un sistema in crisi.
Non lo dico io ma nientepopodimeno che ….. WilliamPoole ex governatore della Fed di St.Louis sino a qualche mese fa, il quale sostiene che stanno aumentando le possibilità che si arrivi alla nazionalizzazione della coppia in questione, l’ennesima imperiosa socializzazione delle perdite!
Freddie Mac owed $5.2 billion more than its assets were worth in the first quarter, making it insolvent under fair value accounting rules, he said. The fair value of Fannie Mae’s assets fell 66 percent to $12.2 billion, data provided by the Washington-based company show, and may be negative next quarter Poole said.
……5,2 miliardi in più rispetto al valore delle sua attività, il che rende teoricamente insolvente secondo i criteri contabili in essere per Freddie e per quanto riguarda Fannie il fair value dei suoi assets è sceso del 66 % .
“Congress ought to recognize that these firms are insolvent, that it is allowing these firms to continue to exist as bastions of privilege, financed by the taxpayer,” Poole, 71, who left the Fed in March, said in an interview. “
Il congresso dovrebbe riconoscere che queste imprese sono insolventi, bastioni del privilegio finanziati dal contribuente, amministrazione americana che tiene colloqui per il da farsi nel caso i due ex giganti dovessero vacillare, il governo non si aspetta che le due entità possano fallire e quindi nessun piano di salvataggio è imminente, comunque sia se ne sta parlando.
Questo dimostra se mai qualcuno ne avesse avuto bisogno, che le istituzioni non sempre possono raccontare la realtà, oggi Poole è in pensione e quindi Vi racconta la pura e semplice verità, come da tempo stò umilmente cercando di segnalarVi!
Ad onor di cronaca l’agenzia di rating S&P sostiene che il pericolo è relativo, ma si sa oggi è tutto relativo, il fondo il sistema finanziario era solido secondo Bernanke tranne oggi arrivare a prolungare il sostegno alle investment banks tenendo aperta ad oltranza la Discount Window che avrebbe dovuto chiudere i battenti a settembre, senza dimenticare che anche Bear Stearns era solida, pure Lehman naviga in un mare di liquidità e tante altre realtà ancora!
Sul_WSJ troverete ulteriori ragguagli!
![[No Reprieve]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AM186A_FANFR_20080709220816.gif)
Fannie & Freddie hanno perso rispettivamente sino ad ora il 77 e l’82 % del proprio valore, sotto pressione per un’ipotesi di ricapitalizzazione da 75 miliardi di dollari vedono gli spread ai massimi dal 2000 oltre 200 punti base e i loro credit default swaps esplodere all’improvviso, i massimi da circa 14 settimane per il rischio default e 82000 dollari per proteggere 10 milioni!
Secondo quanto riportato da Bloomberg i livelli dei CDS implicano una valutazione di A2 da parte di Moody’s rispetto all’attuale tripla A circa cinque piani più sotto,
Bilanci da brivido, in attesa di essere nuovamente nazionalizzati nella peggiore delle ipotesi, un portafoglio colossale per circa 5300 miliardi di dollari pari all’intero debito governativo detenuto dal pubblico…. ma pur sempre " Too Big Too Fail " troppo grandi per essere lasciati fallire.
La cosa incredibile è che pur essendo considerati portatori di rischio sistemico la loro porzione di MBS Mortgage Backed Securities è salita all’84 % più di due volte è mezzo il valore di due anni fa quando il crollo del mercato immobiliare prese il via, troppo grandi per fallire si ormai giorno dopo giorno si aggiunge il nome di un possibile rischio sistemico ieri Lehman, oggi Freddie & Fannie, domani chissà!
Eppure non è cosi facile, su Fortune potrete trovare il perchè ……
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government sponsored enterprises that help the mortgage market function by purchasing pools of loans and packaging them into securities. If one or both couldn’t function, the result would be chaos.
Se anche solo una delle due dovesse chiudere i battenti sarebbe il caos, si getterebbe l’economia in una depressione o qualcosa di simile.
Alla fine dello scorso anno, Fannie Mae aveva confezionato e garantito 2,8 trillioni di dollari circa il 23 % del mercato immobiliare, massimo livello e diversificazione in tutto il mondo……
The Federal Reserve and the Treasury have taken great pains to point out that the government is not obligated to bail out either Fannie or Freddie if they face insolvency.
Vedremo too Big too Fail vale per tutti ed in particolare per Freddie & Fannie, checchè ne dica la Federal Reserve o il Tesoro americano, l’obbligo esiste nel confronto del rischio sistemico.
Una sfida contro la natura, quindi, quella di Jekyll e Hyde alle volte troppo convinti di riuscire a gestire la loro metamorfosi ma forse anche qualcosa più grande di loro, una grande depressione immobiliare e finanziaria, vittime alle volte consapevoli di incontrollabili mutamenti che probabilmente da sole senza l’aiuto dello stato non saranno più in grado di sopportare, l’ennesimo fallimento del libero mercato.
5 commenti Commenta
utente anonimo
Scritto il 10 Luglio 2008 at 15:43
Grande Capitano: PROPRIO OGGI, MA GUARDA CHE COINCIDENZA:Sono a rischio insolvenza Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac, le due agenzie a garanzia pubblica specializzate nei mutui ipotecari. Lo ha detto l’ex presidente della Fed di St.Louis, William Poole, secondo cui stanno aumentando le probabilità che il governo americano debba ricorrere a un salvataggio delle due società travolte dal collasso dei mutui subprime.
copio e incollo dal sito del sole24ore
Buon Vento!
saluti
skipper
(di http://www.navigamus.blogspot.com )
utente anonimo
Scritto il 10 Luglio 2008 at 16:31
Sei SEMPRE avanti, mio Capitano !
Roberto.
Fannie, Freddie Tumble on Bailout Concern, UBS Cut (Update1)
By Dawn Kopecki and Shannon D. Harrington
July 10 (Bloomberg) — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two biggest providers of financing for U.S. home loans, tumbled to the lowest in 17 years in New York trading after a former Federal Reserve president said the companies may need a government bailout.
Fannie Mae tumbled as much as 20 percent and Freddie Mac slumped as much as 29 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading after UBS AG analysts said the company creates “challenges” for the company’s plans to raise $5.5 billion, UBS analysts said in a report today.
Chances are increasing that the U.S. will bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because they don’t have enough capital to weather the worst housing slump since the Great Depression, former St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole said in an interview. Freddie Mac owed $5.2 billion more than its assets were worth in the first quarter, making it insolvent under fair value accounting rules, he said. The fair value of Fannie Mae’s assets fell 66 percent to $12.2 billion, data provided by the Washington- based company show, and may be negative next quarter, Poole said.
“Congress ought to recognize that these firms are insolvent, that it is allowing these firms to continue to exist as bastions of privilege, financed by the taxpayer,” Poole, 71, who left the Fed in March, said in the interview yesterday.
Fair value accounting measures a company’s net worth if it had to liquidate all of its assets to repay liabilities. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both of whom have the implicit backing of the government, make money by borrowing in the bond market and reinvesting the proceeds in higher-yielding mortgages and securities backed by home loans.
`Inflection’ Point
Fannie Mae slumped $2.70 to $12.61 at 10:19 a.m., extending declines for the year to 69 percent. Freddie Mac tumbled $2.96 to $7.30, taking its 2008 slide to 78 percent. UBS AG analysts led by Eric Wasserstrom in New York increased their estimates for losses at Freddie Mac and cut their price target for the stock to $10 from $28 after meeting with Freddie Mac’s chief financial officer Anthony Piszel and controller David Kellerman, according to a report today.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have raised a combined $20 billion since December to cover losses of more than $11 billion generated since the credit crisis began last year. Freddie Mac has yet to raise a planned $5.5 billion, scheduled for mid-year.
Paulson, Bernanke
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told lawmakers in Washington today that he’s been assured by the regulator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that the companies have enough capital.
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight “has made clear that they are adequately capitalized,” Paulson said in prepared testimony for the House Financial Services Committee. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is also slated to appear.
The Treasury has been discussing what to do if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fail for months as part of its contingency planning, the Wall Street Journal reported today, citing three people familiar with the matter. The government doesn’t expect the companies to fail and it doesn’t have a rescue plan in place, the Journal said.
“At some point we’re going to reach that inflection, where the government is going to have to either guarantee explicitly or Fannie and Freddie are going to have be left to fend for themselves,” Peter Boockvar, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television yesterday. “We’re getting to that point where a decision has to be made by Washington.”
`Well-Capitalized’
The government is counting on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee about half the $12 trillion in home loans outstanding, to help revive the housing market. Congress lifted growth restrictions on the companies, eased their capital requirements and allowed them to buy bigger “jumbo mortgages” to spur demand for home loans as competitors fled the market.
“We are managing our business and maintaining a capital position that will allow us to fulfill our congressionally chartered mission now and in the future,” Brian Faith, a spokesman for Fannie Mae, said.
Poole is “a long-time critic,” said Sharon McHale, a spokeswoman for McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac.
“Freddie Mac is doing exactly what Congress intended when it chartered the company and, more recently, when it passed the Economic Stimulus Act,” McHale said. “We are well capitalized and positioned to continue to serve our vital housing mission.”
Government Ties
While leading the St. Louis Fed, Poole roiled markets in 2003 when he said the government should consider severing its implied backing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and said the companies lack the capital to weather financial market disruptions. In 2006 and 2007 he called for lawmakers to strip Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac of their charters.
Congress created Freddie Mac and expanded Fannie Mae in 1970 to promote home buying in the U.S. The companies’ charters give the Treasury the authority to buy as much as $2.25 billion in each of their securities in the event of possible default.
The government will likely be forced to take over the companies because of the mortgage meltdown, Poole said.
“We know in a crisis the Federal Reserve tap would be open,” said Poole, now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute.
The bailout of Bear Stearns Cos. by JPMorgan Chase & Co., arranged by the Fed, demonstrates the government’s unwillingness to allow “large, systemically important” financial institutions to fail, he said. Bear Stearns collapsed after customers fled amid speculation the company faced a cash shortage.
“I worry about those institutions,” retired Richmond Fed President Alfred Broaddus said. “They are huge. They dwarf the Bear Stearns issue. In the very worst case scenario, I don’t know how you do it other than extend money and the public takes the loss.”
$20 Billion Raised
The companies have access to the Fed’s so-called Fedwire payments system allowing them to access funding if needed, said Vincent Reinhart, the Fed’s chief monetary-policy strategist from 2001 until September 2007.
They can withstand the slump in part because most of their investments are mortgages made before 2006 when lending standards were tighter, making them less likely to default, said Eileen Fahey, a Chicago-based analyst at Fitch Ratings.
“We do not believe they are technically insolvent,” Fahey said. “People seem to lose sight of the fact that a majority of the mortgages that they are holding and are guaranteeing were originated pre-2006.”
Comments by the companies’ regulator this week that they are adequately capitalized also eased concern, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors in Washington. The companies have about $80 billion of regulatory capital supporting $5.2 trillion of mortgages.
“Just given the size of the two companies, surely the government would not stand aside” and let them fail, Yun said.
Record Spreads
Fannie Mae sold $3 billion of two-year notes yesterday to yield 74 basis points more than Treasuries. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. That’s the widest spread since Fannie Mae first sold two-year notes in 2000 and triple what it paid in June 2006.
Fannie Mae’s spreads relative to two-year interest-rate swap spreads, considered a gauge of investors’ perception of credit risk, remain about 12 basis points below a four-year high that was reached in March, Bloomberg
data show.
Fannie Mae debt was trading 13 basis points tighter than two-year swap spreads today compared with 2 basis points tighter on March 19, Bloomberg data show. Freddie Mac spreads are about 19 basis points tighter than swap spreads after trading at the same level as swaps on March 17. Swap spreads are the difference between interest-swap rates above Treasury yields.
Credit-Default Swaps
The price of credit-default swaps, contracts used to speculate on the creditworthiness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, doubled in the past two months to more than 80 basis points for the senior debt, according to London-based CMA Datavision.
The median credit-default swap on debt rated Aaa by Moody’s was 36 basis points as of yesterday, data from the rating firm’s strategy group show. It was 87 basis points for debt rated A3.
Credit-default swaps are financial instruments based on bonds and loans that are used to speculate on a company’s ability to repay debt. They pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A basis point on a contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.
Last Updated: July 10, 2008 10:27 EDT
Scritto il 10 Luglio 2008 at 20:09
Si sempre avanti, quel tanto che basta la prua fuori dall’acqua e vele gonfie di Umanità, lasciamo da parte per un attimo la tristezza di questa epoca……..sognando orizzonti nuovi!
Ufficialmente propongo come colonna sonora della nostra “avventura” la canzone DREAMS dei Cranberries, un’esplosione di sogni, di vita….un ritmo che si addice alla rotta del nostro veliero!
Oh, my life is changing everyday,
In every possible way.
And oh, my dreams, it’s never quiet as it seems,
Never quiet as it seems.
I know I’ve felt like this before, but now I’m feeling it even
more,
Because it came from you.
And then I open up and see the person falling here is me,
A different way to be.
Ah, la da ah…
La…
I want more imposible to ignore,
Imposible to ignore.
And they’ll come true, impossible not to do,
Impossible not to do.
And now I tell you openly, you have my heart so don’t hurt me.
You’re what I couldn’t find.
A totally amazing mind, so understanding and so kind;
You’re everything to me.
Oh, my life,
Is changing every day,
In every possible way.
And oh, my dreams,
It’s never quiet as it seems,
‘Cause you’re a dream to me,
Dream to me.
Ciao Andrea
Ah, da, da da da, da, la…
utente anonimo
Scritto il 10 Luglio 2008 at 23:16
ANDREA LA TUA INFORMAZIONE è SPETACOLARE….PER IL SEMPLICE FATTO CHE è TALE.
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ma la fed. può nazionalizzare tutto?
ci sarà un limite?