2013… GLOBAL PERFECT STORM!

In una  interessante intervista a   Bloomberg TV, Nouriel Roubini dopo mesi e mesi di strambate mediatiche e di clamorosi buchi nell’acqua torna a rivestire i panni del gufo per eccellenza anticipando quello che sara’ il tema del nostro prossimo post dedicato in preparazione per l’autunno dopo Anno 2012: Esplosione del Debito ovvero 2013 Global Perfect Storm sempre che la politica non sia in grado di cambiare il corso della storia ma ormai  ne dubito ampiamente.

 Dopo il sindaco di Londra anche Roubino parla di rischio giustizia sommaria del rischio di vedere un giorno qualche banchiere impiccato per strada!

On Lieborgate:

Nothing has changed since the financial crisis. The incentives of the banks is to cheat – doing things that are either illegal or immoral. The only way to avoid that is to break up these financial supermarkets. There are no chinese walls and massive conflicts of interest.

On Greed:

Bankers are greedy – they have been for 1000 years.

On Sanctions:

There should be criminal sanctions. Noone has gone to jail since the global financial crisis. The banks do things that are illegal and at best they get a slapped with a fine. If some people end up in jail, maybe that will teach a lesson to somebody – or somebody will hang in the streets.

Sin qui nulla di nuovo che noi non sappiamo o si determina una grave responsabilita penale per un sistema che ha l’unica razionalita’ e incentivo nella frode e nella manipolazione per fottere i risparmiatori e i polli o non si va da nessuna parte. 

There are more conflicts of interest today than four years ago. The banks that were too big to fail and now they are even bigger. Things are worse – not better.

On The EU Summit:

The summit was a failure. The markets were expecting much more.

Either you have debt mutualization (to reduce the spread), or you have debt monetization by the ECB, or the bazooka of the EFSF/ESM has to be quadrupled – otherwise the spreads on Italy and Spain are going to blow up day after day. Otherwise you will have another bigger crisis not in six months from now but in the next two weeks.

Ma certo come sempre e’ un problema di potenza di fuoco, di guerra, di bazooka e via dicendo. Responsabilita’ della speculazione dopo quelle immense della politica zero suppongo. Abbiamo ormai visto che e’ possibile manipolare tutto, che si tratti di tassi, di Cds, di Spread o altro nulla cambia o fermi questo gioco al massacro che ha gravi ripercussioni sulla vita sociale ed economica dei paesi o prima o poi le conseguenza saranno terribili altro che grande depressione del ’29.

On The ECB saving the world:

The only entity capable of stopping this is the ECB which needs to do outright unsterilized monetization in unlimited amounts which is ‘politically incorrect’ to talk about and claimed to be constutionally illegal.

On Debt mutualization:

It is not just Germany that is resistant but other core nations including The Netherlands, Austria, and Finland. Finland doesn’t even want to accept the recent indirect mutualization of the summit liabilities (of the EFSF/ESM).

On kicking the can:

By 2013, the ability of policy makers to kick the can down the road is going to run out of steam, and in the euro zone the slow motion train wreck will become a fast motion train wreck. The US seems close to stall-speed and an economic recession. The landing of China is becoming harder and EM nations (and BRICs) are sharply slowing down. And finally the potential for war between Israel, the US, and Iran – which will double oil prices overnight.

Ah dimenticavo… Se nulla cambia nel 2013 noi di Icebergfinanza saremo piu’ liquidi dell’oceano che abbiamo esplorato in questi cinque lunghi anni ma solo nel 2013, non come hanno suggerito medici, dotti e sapienti che quotidianamente hanno panicato, precludendovi occasioni d’oro!

On 2013 being worse than 2008:

Worse because like 2008 you will have an economic and financial crisis but unlike 2008, you are running out of policy bullets. In 2008, you could cut rates; do QE1, QE2; you could do fiscal stimulus; you could backstop/ringfence/guarantee banks and everybody else. Today, more QEs are becoming less and less effective because the problems are of solvency not liquidity. Fiscal deficits are already so large and you cannot bail out the banks because 1) there is a political opposition to it; and 2) governments are near-insolvent – they cannot bailout themselves let alone their banks. The problem is that we are running out of policy rabbits to pull out of the hat!